I’m currently a PhD candidate at the University of Galway. I completed the European Master’s program in System Dynamics and obtained a degree in Systems Engineering from Universidad Industrial de Santander. Professionally, I worked in the Colombian public sector for more than two years, and I have been a research assistant at the University of Galway for five years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, I supported the World Health Organisation (GOARN programme) and the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) with quantitative analyses.

I am also the developer of the R package readsdr.

Research interests

My research focuses on statistical inference in compartmental models, using Monte Carlo methods.

Papers

• Duggan et al (2023). An Age-Cohort Simulation Model for Generating COVID-19 Scenarios: A Study from Ireland’s Pandemic Response. European Journal of Operational Research.

• Andrade & Duggan (2023). Anchoring the mean generation time in the SEIR to mitigate biases in R0 estimates due to uncertainty in the distribution of the epidemiological delays. Royal Society Open Science.

• Andrade & Duggan (2022). Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data. PLOS Computational Biology.

• Andrade & Duggan (2021). A Bayesian approach to calibrate system dynamics models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. System Dynamics Review.

• Andrade & Duggan (2020). An evaluation of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo performance to calibrate age-structured compartmental SEIR models to incidence data. Epidemics.